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Subscribe to the Moving to Portland Month
Newsletter You can subscribe to my monthly newsletter at
Moving to Portland Newsletter
- just give your name and e-mail address. The newsletter tracks the
home prices in the Portland metro area.
Portland Metro Area Home Prices: June 2010
June was a mixed bag for Portland-area home sales.
Prices again declined and the number of pending sales in the pipeline
plummeted more than 25 percent from June 2009, according to monthly
Market Report issued by the
Regional Multiple Listing
Service.
But the 2,012 closed sales in the month marked a 13.3
percent increase from June 2009. And the average time on the market
declined to 121 days, a 17.7 percent improvement from the same month
last year. The numbers were not as bad as some had expected, given the
expiration of the federal tax credit to some homebuyers. But the market
clearly remains soft, as Oregon's economy continues to struggle with 10
percent-plus unemployment.
The median sales price in the month was $240,000, down
4 percent from a year ago. At the month's rate of sales, the 14,752
active residential listings would last approximately 7.3 months, a
slight improvement from a year ago.
2009 Portland Metro Area Home Prices
The region's median home price fell 3 percent in 2009 and
finished the year at $242,200 in December, the Regional Multiple Listing
Service reported. The 2009's price decline was far better than the
9.7 percent drop reported a year earlier.
For the year, closed sales were virtually flat, down 0.9 percent. The big
swing for the year was a drop of 10,000 in the number of people planting
"For Sale" signs in their front yards. The number of new listings dropped
19 percent in 2009.
Federal incentives shot some life back into housing in
the fall. Low rates and the first-time buyer tax credit enticed more demand
for homes below $300,000.
Some 2009 Highlights:
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Price Dip The tax credit goosed sales
for lower-priced homes. The weight of the large number of low-end homes
helped push the median price down to $239,000 in November, the
lowest since June 2005.
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Jumbo Problem Homes priced at more than
$750,000 wallowed on the market. Potential buyers were held back by
lenders' reluctance to offer mortgages for pricey homes and the wallop
the stock market gave to their savings account.
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Condo Auctions A lender's decision to
auction units at South Waterfront's exclusive Atwater Place set a price
floor for sellers of downtown condos. The auctioneer unloaded 40 units
in one afternoon. The average decline from the original list price:
36 percent. That hefty discount −
or deeper still − has spread to condos elsewhere
in the city.
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Bankrupt Builders Renaissance Homes became
the first major bankrupt builder to pull itself out of Chapter 11. The
Lake Oswego company got its reorganization plan approved by creditors
and a judge in December. Legend Homes of Tigard and Pacific Lifestyle
Homes of Vancouver are still working on their reorganization plans.
The Portland metro area figures above encompasses
these five counties in Oregon: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington,
and Yamhill. The RMLS report includes separate data for Southwest
Washington's Clark and Cowlitz counties.
City of Portland 2009 Prices
In West Portland (Includes Southwest and Northwest
Portland and parts of eastern Washington County), the average price was
$420,500 (it was $478,500 in 2008). The median price was $347,600.
The three other areas in the city (North, Northeast, and Southeast) all
showed decreases in both average price and median price in 2009.
Suburban Communities 2009 Prices
The home prices in every suburban community
decreased in 2008. In Lake Oswego and West Linn, the price of an average
home went from $541,300 to $$486,300. All the communities showed double
digit percentage decreases except for Milwaukie/Clackamas (-9.5%) and the
Mt. Hood area (0.2%). See the chart below for figures.
Clark County (Vancouver, Washington) 2009 Prices
The RMLS report also included separate data
for Southwest Washington's Clark and Cowlitz counties. Comparing 2009 sales
activity with that of 2008, closed sales increased 13.8% and pending sales
were up 19.5%. New listings fell 23%. Total sales volume for 2009 was $1.2
billion, which matches the total from 2008.
For the year, the average sale price dropped
14.6% compared to 2008 ($237,800 v, $278,300). The median sale price fell
12.6% ($211,500 v. $242,000).
Oregon Number 11 in Foreclosures
RealtyTrac reports
3.9 million foreclosure filings in 2009, up 21 percent from a year earlier.
About 2.2 percent of all U.S. housing units got at least foreclosure notice
in 2009. California, Florida, Arizona and Illinois accounted for more than
50 percent of the 2009 foreclosure filings.
For the year, Oregon had one foreclosure filing for every 47 housing units,
ranking the state No. 11. Oregon filings were up 89 percent from 2008 and
up 303 percent from 2007.
Portland Metro Area Average Home Price Increased 31.5% From
2000 to 2009
Below is the 10-Year Average & Median Prices chart
for the Portland metro area. It covers the period from 2000 to 2009. The
average price gained $91,300 ($289,900 v. $198,600) during this 10-year
period. This was a gained of 31.5 percent. The Compound Annual Growth Rate
(CAGR) is 3.09 percent.
The median price changed by $81,000 during the ten years
from 2000 to 2009 ($247,000 v. $166,000). This amounts to a gain of 33 percent
− the CAGR is 4.05 percent.
Note: CAGR is an imaginary number that describes
the rate at which an investment would have grown if it grew at a steady
rate. You can think of CAGR as a way to smooth out the returns.

Portland Metro1
Residential2
Home Prices 2002-2009
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|
2002
|
2003
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
Average Sales Price |
$213,900 |
$222,500 |
$246,000 |
$282,900 |
$332,600 |
$342,000 |
$330,300 |
$289,900 |
|
Median Sales Price |
$176,900 |
$185,000 |
$204,500 |
$237,500 |
$270,500 |
$290,000 |
$278,000 |
$247,000 |
|
12-Month Average Sales Price Change3 |
4.8% |
5.6% |
10.6% |
15.0% |
14.1% |
6.3% |
-3.7% |
-12.2% |
|
12-Month Median Sales Price Change4 |
4.1% |
4.9% |
10.2% |
16.1% |
13.9% |
7.2% |
-4.0% |
-11.2% |
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1The
metro area includes the following Oregon counties: Clackamas,
Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill. It does
not include Clark County in Washington state.
2Residential includes
detached single-family homes, condos, townhomes, manufactured
homes, and multi-family units when one of the units is sold.
312-Month
Average Sales Price Change based on a comparison of the rolling
average price for the last 12 months with the 12 months before.
For example in 2009: (1/1/09-12/31/09) with the 12 months
before (1/1/08-12/31/08).
412-Month
Median Sales Price Change based on a comparison of the rolling
median price for the last 12 months with the 12 months before.
For example in 2008: (1/1/09-12/31/09) with the 12 months
before (1/1/08-12/31/08).
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Source: Regional
Market Listing Service (RMLS™)
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Portland Metro1
Residential2
Average Home Prices and Appreciation 2005-2009
|
|
2005 Average
Price
|
2005 Sales Price
Change3
|
2006 Average
Price
|
2006 Sales Price
Change3
|
2007
Average
Price |
2007 Sales Price
Change3
|
2008
Average
Price |
2008 Sales Price Change3 |
2009 Average Price |
2009 Sales Price Change3 |
|
Metro Area
|
|
Portland Metro1
|
$282,900 |
15.0% |
$270,500 |
14.1% |
$342,000
|
6.3% |
$330,300 |
-3.7% |
$289,900 |
-12.2% |
|
City of Portland
|
|
North |
$208,800 |
18.1% |
$234,500 |
17.5% |
$266,600 |
8.4% |
$266,100 |
-0.1% |
$236,000 |
-11.3% |
|
Northeast
|
$262,300
|
15.8% |
$265,000 |
15.4% |
$321,600 |
6.4% |
$320,000 |
-0.4% |
$287,100 |
-10.2% |
|
Southeast |
$230,900 |
14.6% |
$234,500 |
15.8% |
$285,500 |
7.1% |
$276,100 |
-3.3% |
$240,900 |
-12.7% |
|
West (Includes SW and NW Portland and NE Washington County) |
$410,700 |
14.5% |
$378,100 |
10.3% |
$468,100 |
3.6% |
$478,500 |
1.9% |
$420,500 |
-12.0% |
|
Suburban Communities
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|
Corbett, Gresham, Sandy, Troutdale |
$230,000 |
12.9% |
$248,000 |
15.2% |
$281,900 |
6.3% |
$245,000 |
-8.2% |
$222,100 |
-14.1% |
|
Clackamas, Milwaukie, Gladstone, Sunnyside |
$293,200 |
16.8% |
$307,200 |
15.2% |
$334,200 |
-5.4% |
$284,900 |
-4.6% |
$288,000 |
-9.5% |
|
Canby, Beavercreek, Molalla, Mulino, Oregon City |
$282,400 |
18.9% |
$286,000 |
15.6% |
$329,600 |
1.2% |
$280,000 |
-5.0% |
$279,500 |
-10.7% |
|
Lake Oswego and West Linn |
$452,600 |
13.6% |
$443,800 |
16.7% |
$567,900 |
7.8%
|
$541,300 |
-4.5% |
$486,300 |
-9.8% |
|
Northwest Washington County or Sauvie Island |
$369,400 |
14.5% |
$359,000 |
7.6% |
$419,400 |
5.4% |
$404,800 |
-3.4% |
$369,300 |
-8.7% |
|
Beaverton and Aloha |
$246,500 |
13.6% |
$251,000 |
12.7% |
$286,500 |
3.4% |
$273,800 |
-4.4% |
$241,100 |
-11.9% |
|
Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville |
$328,500 |
24.8% |
$322,000 |
8.6% |
$374,700 |
5.3% |
$352,600 |
-5.9% |
$316,000 |
-10.3% |
|
Hillsboro and Forest Grove |
$243,500 |
17.0% |
$260,000 |
15.9% |
$297,900 |
5.5% |
$277,800 |
-6.7% |
$243,200 |
-12.3% |
|
Mt.Hood: Brightwood, Government Camp, Rhododendron, Welches,
Wemme, ZigZag |
$231,400 |
32.5% |
$254,200 |
20.3% |
$283,600 |
2.0% |
$253,700 |
-10.5% |
$254,300 |
0.2 |
|
Outlying Counties193300
|
|
Columbia County |
|
|
$219,800 |
14.5% |
$254,000 |
11.6% |
$230,700 |
-9.0% |
$193,300 |
-16.1% |
|
Yamhill County |
|
|
$229,900 |
18.3% |
$281,600 |
6.1% |
$266,800 |
-5.2% |
$227,300 |
-14.8% |
|
Marion and Polk Counties |
|
|
$207,000 |
15.1% |
$250,800 |
6.9% |
$252,500 |
-4.8% |
$203,600 |
-15.0% |
|
North Coastal Counties |
|
|
$259,000 |
20.0% |
$381,600 |
14.4% |
$358,500 |
-8.0% |
$296,800 |
-15.2% |
|
Southwest Washington
State (Clark and Cowlitz Counties)
|
|
Includes Vancouver, WA |
$260,800 |
16.4% |
$256,000 |
12.5% |
$305,500 |
1.7% |
$278,300 |
-8.9% |
$237,800 |
-14.6% |
|
1The
Portland metro area includes these Oregon counties: Clackamas,
Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, & Yamhill. Note that
it does not include Clark County (i.e., Vancouver, WA) in Washington
state.
2Residential
includes detached single-family homes, condos, townhomes, manufactured
homes, and multi-family units when one of the units is sold.
312-Month
Average Sales Price Change based on a comparison of the rolling
average price for the last 12 months with the 12 months before.
For example in 2009: (1/1/09-12/31/09) with the 12 months
before (1/1/08-12/31/08).
|
|
Source:
Regional Market Listing Service (RMLS™)
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Street Trees Increase Home Prices in Portland
In
a paper published in
Landscape
and Urban Planning, Geoffrey Donovan of the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific
Northwest Research Station found that, on average, street trees add $8,870
to a home's sales price and reduce its time on the market by 1.7 days.
Donovan and his co-author, David Butry of the National Institute of Standards
and Technology in Maryland, reviewed data meticulously collected from 2,608
homes for sale in east Portland in the summer of 2007.
What they found was that if a house had street trees and tree canopy close
by, that increased the sales price of a house and it sold faster. And that
finding, they note, has some public policy implications. Calculating the
increased property tax revenue to the city and comparing it to the expense
the city bears maintaining street trees, the authors estimate street trees
have a benefit to cost ratio of 2 to 1. "In Portland, the benefits of street
trees significantly outweigh their maintenance costs," they write.
Other Sources of Housing
Information
Portland State University
Quarterly Real Estate Report
The
Portland State
University (PSU) Center for Real Estate publishes the PSU Quarterly
Real Estate Report each quarter. The first issue covered the last quarter
of 2006. You can find copies of the report at:
PSU Quarterly Real Estate Reports
The report is the product of a collaborative effort by
the PSU Center for Real Estate and the Oregon Association of REALTORS® to
provide service to the local community. The intention of the report is to
provide useful information about trends in commercial and residential real
estate to the real estate community in Oregon and Southwest Washington.
It is very comprehensive and covers the local economy as well as housing.
The report is made possible thanks to a donation by the
Oregon Association of Rrealtors® along with the participation of RMLS, Cushman
& Wakefield, Norris Beggs & Simpson and Grubb & Ellis.
DataQuick
Since 1978,
DataQuick has built
a reputation as a provider of real estate information. Although much
of DataQuick's information is available only to its paid subscribers, some
of the information at their Web site is accessible to all visitors.
The site covers the California market extensively but it also releases quarterly
information on the
Portland
housing market.
Affordability in Portland
In early 2007, the Portland Development Commission
(PDC) finalized its recommendations for spending the new tax increment set-aside
from urban renewal districts that the City Council earmarked for affordable
housing. The amount: $162.6 million over the next six years. PDC increased
its commitment to build as many as 1,450 units specifically for people who
pay no more than 30 percent of their income for rent. That means citywide
and not just downtown.
A Formula for Affordable Housing
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Affordable Housing: Rent or mortgage
that consumes no more than 30 percent of income.
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Median Income: The formula uses
U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) median figures
for cities across the country. In 2006, the Portland median income
for a single person in Portland was $46,850. A full-time minimum-wage
worker earned $15,600.
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What is Affordable in Portland for a
Median-wage Worker: For a median-wage worker ($46,850) an affordable
rent (30 percent of their income) would be $14,055 per year or $1,171
per month.
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What is Affordable in Portland for a
Minimum-wage Worker: For a minimum-wage worker ($15,600) an affordable
rent (30 percent of their income) would be $4,680 per year or $390 per
month.
Early each year, HUD release new median income
figures. This usually triggers rent increases in income-restricted buildings,
since landlords are allowed to raise rents whenever the medium income rises.
Northwest Pilot
Project tracks the number of downtown affordable housing units and for
2007, it is about 3,400 units.
Urban Boundaries and Home Prices
The cost of housing is one of the most contentious
issues related to Portland's metro planning. With an median sales
price of $237,500 in 2005, this is beyond the reach of many people.
Does the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) cause
Higher Home Prices? (see Portland Planning
for a discussion of UGB). The NAHB desire more land on which to build
homes. In their document called
The Truth About Regulatory Barriers to Housing Affordability the NAHB
identified 42 markets with barriers, Portland being one of these markets.
They called the UGB the "Wall of Portland" and attack it accordingly. The
Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland, has been among those
critical of Metro for being too restrictive in its UGB.
2000 Census Bureau figures indicates that
the density in downtown Portland has increased by 30 percent, which is what
planners had in mind. Only a few cities in the USA have increased
their core city population.
Applying Science to the Debate
Sightline Institute,
an environmental organization located in Seattle, used some science to compare
urban sprawl in Clark County in Washington State and Portland. Clark County
is just across the Columbia River and part of the Portland metro area. Sightline
used satellite imagery of open space, farmland and pavement, along with
digital mapping of US Census data to track patterns of growth during the
1990s. They found that if Portland had taken the same approach to
land-use planning as Clark County in the 1990s, an additional 14 square
miles would have been developed. Click
here to read the full report.
For a review of Washington State's Growth Management Act,
visit the
1000 Friends of Washington Web site.
Rating Portland's Density
A study released in August 2003, called "Measuring the
Health Effects of Sprawl," commissioned by
Smart Growth
America, a national advocacy group, and financed by the Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation, a health promotion group, found that U.S. adults who
live in compact cities are more likely to walk or bike to work, school,
stores and other everyday destinations than they are to drive. This translates
to slightly lower weights and blood pressures.
As part of the study, researchers from Rutgers and Cornell
universities used six variables, including housing density and block size,
to create a "sprawl index" for 448 urban counties across the United States.
The index was set with 100 as the average; more sprawling counties had lower
scores.
New York's boroughs had the least sprawl - especially Manhattan,
with a score of 352. The most sprawling place was Geauga County, Ohio, near
Cleveland, which scored 63.
Multnomah County (where the city of Portland is located),
the Northwest's most compact county, ranked 24th densest among the 448
urban counties, just missing the top 5 percent.
Groups with Different Positions on Housing Costs
Read the opinions of the
Cascade Policy Institute,
a Portland group that advocates a free-market approach.
1,000 Friends of Oregon
feels that the Oregon regulations work well. 1000 Friends of Oregon
is a nonprofit charitable organization,
founded in 1975
by Governor Tom McCall and Henry Richmond as the citizens' voice for land
use planning that protects Oregon's quality of life from the effects of
growth.
Oregonians in Action (OIA)
is a non-profit lobbying organization that leads the fight for land-use
regulatory reform and protection for private property rights. OIA authored
two ballot measures in 1998: one to require landowner notification and another
to give citizens the right to petition for legislative review of "bad state
regulations." In 2004, OIA passed Measure 37, a constitutional amendment
that requires compensation to landowners.
Compare Cost of Living Between Metro Areas
There
are a number of free sites that allow you to compare living costs between
metro areas but the numbers don't always make sense. We recommend
using the ACCRA Web site
(the acronym means nothing it was created by a group of US Chamber
of Commerce researchers years ago). Its a member organization whose
mission is strictly research. For under $20 you can compare the cost
of living with where you're living to five other USA/Canadian metro areas.
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness
Act of 1992 mandates that
OFHEO publish a House
Price Index (HPI), a measure designed to capture changes in
the value of single-family homes in the USA. It also includes a HPI
in various regions of the country, individual states, and the District of
Columbia. You can view the HPI by the state of Oregon and by the MSA
(Metropolitan Statistical Area).
National Association of Realtors (NAR)
NAR is the
"Voice for Real Estate." It is America's largest trade association, representing
one million members, including NAR's institutes, societies and councils,
involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Their "Existing Home Sales Data" measures the health of the residential
real estate industry. Each month, statistics on sales of existing single
family homes are reported for the national and four regional levels. Statistics
on existing condo/co-ops are released quarterly, and figures on existing
single-family home sales (detached and condo/co-ops) by state are released
quarterly.
Case Shiller Weiss
To learn more about housing cost, visit the Web site of
Case Shiller Weiss, Inc.
CSW is a home price research company, founded in 1991, that serves a client
base principally comprised of leading mortgage lenders, insurers, and Wall
Street firms.
Resources
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The Community Development
Network CDN is an association of nonprofit community development
organizations in Multnomah County located in Portland, Oregon. Their
Web site states that "CDN strives to strengthen nonprofit community
development organizations and to provide a collective voice for healthy,
diverse communities."
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Home Ownership a Street at a Time (HOST) 3835 NE Hancock, Suite
101, Portland OR 97212. Phone 503-331-1752. Fax 503-961-9924.
HOST is dedicated to providing affordable homeownership opportunities
for low- to moderate-income families. HOST believes strong, healthy
communities are created and sustained when homeowners have a stake in
their neighborhoods.
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Housing
Authority of Portland HAP is committed to providing safe,
decent and affordable housing to individuals and families in Multnomah
County, Oregon, who face income or other life challenges. HAP offers
support through a wide variety of programs and services. HAP's Web site
is designed to educate citizens about these programs and services, and
to share how HAP is working to build a stronger community.
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Portland
Bureau of Housing & Community Development Their goal is "To
make Portland a more livable city for all by bringing low-income people
and community resources together."
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Portland
Housing Center The Portland Housing Center is certified by
the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development as both a HUD Certified
Counseling Agency and a HUD Certified Non-Profit Provider of Secondary
Financing. It offers resources on how to buy a home.
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Oregon Housing and Community Services Home buying information to
include first-time home buyers, low-interest programs, and grants/tax
credit programs. Phone 503-275-3660.
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U.S. House and Urban Development - Oregon HUD's mission is
to increase homeownership, support community development and increase
access to affordable housing free from discrimination.
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Washington County Department of Housing Services Extensive
information for finding affordable homes in Washington County (west
side of Portland).
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